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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.12vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.58+2.75vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.94+0.98vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.46+1.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+1.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.19+0.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+1.04vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.37vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-1.49vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14-0.71vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-0.91vs Predicted
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12University of Washington-0.25-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.3524.9%1st Place
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4.75University of California at Berkeley0.5812.2%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Los Angeles0.9416.3%1st Place
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5.22University of Washington0.4611.5%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.2%1st Place
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6.7University of California at Davis-0.196.7%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.2%1st Place
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5.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.277.8%1st Place
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7.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.474.2%1st Place
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9.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.8%1st Place
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10.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.671.1%1st Place
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6.86University of Washington-0.255.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 24.9% | 21.9% | 17.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Drew Wolf | 16.3% | 18.1% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 15.6% | 10.4% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 6.6% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 21.9% | 25.5% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 45.1% |
| Henry Stier | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.