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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.46+4.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.85vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.58+0.72vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+2.52vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.94-2.04vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+2.24vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-0.91vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.25-3.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-4.23vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23University of Washington0.4610.1%1st Place
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3.15University of California at Santa Barbara1.3525.1%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.7%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Berkeley0.5812.7%1st Place
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7.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.473.3%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Los Angeles0.9416.6%1st Place
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9.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.142.2%1st Place
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5.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.6%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.5%1st Place
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6.86University of Washington-0.256.0%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Davis-0.195.2%1st Place
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10.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.670.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zackery Martin | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Jasper Reid | 25.1% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 4.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 6.9% |
| Drew Wolf | 16.6% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 20.3% | 26.4% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 15.9% | 10.5% |
| Henry Stier | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 44.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.