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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.15vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.46+3.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.58+1.92vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.94-0.04vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+3.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.19+0.70vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.48vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+1.21vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-2.12vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-2.63vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.25-4.22vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15University of California at Santa Barbara1.3526.2%1st Place
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5.31University of Washington0.469.8%1st Place
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4.92University of California at Berkeley0.5811.6%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Los Angeles0.9416.7%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.5%1st Place
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6.7University of California at Davis-0.196.0%1st Place
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5.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.6%1st Place
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9.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.142.2%1st Place
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6.88University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.2%1st Place
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7.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.473.8%1st Place
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6.78University of Washington-0.255.4%1st Place
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10.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.670.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 26.2% | 20.6% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Michael McCulloch | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Drew Wolf | 16.7% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 9.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 26.4% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.6% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 5.8% |
| Henry Stier | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 45.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.