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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.21vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.94+2.04vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.82vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.46+1.31vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.15vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+1.57vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.35vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.19-1.13vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+0.43vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.25-2.90vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-2.98vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-1.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21University of California at Santa Barbara1.3524.1%1st Place
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4.04University of California at Los Angeles0.9417.0%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.5%1st Place
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5.31University of Washington0.468.9%1st Place
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3.85University of California at Berkeley0.9818.0%1st Place
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7.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.473.4%1st Place
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5.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.1%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Davis-0.194.8%1st Place
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9.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.7%1st Place
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7.1University of Washington-0.253.9%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.6%1st Place
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10.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.671.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 24.1% | 19.9% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 17.0% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Zackery Martin | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 18.0% | 16.7% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 6.9% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 21.9% | 26.2% |
| Henry Stier | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 9.6% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 18.5% | 44.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.