← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.33+3.41vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.23vs Predicted
-
3California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+1.65vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.29vs Predicted
-
5University of Washington0.46+2.15vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.17vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Los Angeles0.94-1.62vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Davis-0.19+0.87vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.56vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-0.35vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+0.89vs Predicted
-
12University of Washington-0.25-3.15vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-2.71vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-1.14vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-0.51-5.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.41California Poly Maritime Academy1.3314.4%1st Place
-
4.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.3517.9%1st Place
-
4.65California Poly Maritime Academy1.2014.4%1st Place
-
5.29University of California at Berkeley0.9811.8%1st Place
-
7.15University of Washington0.465.7%1st Place
-
9.17University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.9%1st Place
-
5.38University of California at Los Angeles0.9410.8%1st Place
-
8.87University of California at Davis-0.193.0%1st Place
-
7.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.1%1st Place
-
9.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.472.6%1st Place
-
11.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.1%1st Place
-
8.85University of Washington-0.253.8%1st Place
-
10.29University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.9%1st Place
-
12.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.670.8%1st Place
-
9.87University of California at San Diego-0.512.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxwell Roth | 14.4% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 17.9% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 14.4% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| Drew Wolf | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 5.9% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 21.2% | 24.6% |
| Henry Stier | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 8.6% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 43.5% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.