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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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11.55+1.76vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.81+2.18vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.74+1.33vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.15+2.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.63+2.97vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+3.66vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.11-1.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-0.12vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+1.44vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-4.05vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-2.17vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-6.54vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.03-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.761.5529.2%1st Place
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4.18University of Washington0.8114.2%1st Place
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4.33University of Washington0.7414.2%1st Place
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6.56University of California at San Diego-0.155.4%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Berkeley-0.633.4%1st Place
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9.66University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.6%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Los Angeles0.117.6%1st Place
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7.88University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.5%1st Place
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10.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.800.9%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Barbara0.067.6%1st Place
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8.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.952.9%1st Place
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5.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.268.6%1st Place
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11.01University of California at Davis-2.030.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Ross | 29.2% | 25.1% | 17.6% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 14.2% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 14.2% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tobie Bloom | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Max Lawall | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| Linnea Jackson | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 20.7% | 29.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 7.6% |
| Florence Duff | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 20.8% | 39.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.