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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.41vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.70+0.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.43vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.76vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.38+1.21vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.32+0.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.07+0.20vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.68-2.57vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.51-3.10vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-1.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-1.47vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.48University of California at Santa Barbara1.8521.6%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Berkeley0.989.7%1st Place
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3.9University of Hawaii1.7018.9%1st Place
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4.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.1%1st Place
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6.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.8%1st Place
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7.21University of Southern California0.384.3%1st Place
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7.15University of California at Los Angeles0.325.1%1st Place
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8.2University of California at Davis0.073.5%1st Place
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6.43University of California at San Diego0.686.3%1st Place
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6.9University of Washington0.516.2%1st Place
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9.64California State University Monterey Bay-0.571.7%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.4%1st Place
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10.95San Diego State University-1.271.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 21.6% | 20.2% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Lahr | 18.9% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Ian Marshall | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 3.9% |
| Noah Barton | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 22.1% | 31.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 21.8% | 40.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.