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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.45vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.70+1.85vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.51vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.48vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+0.50vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.32+0.10vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.38-0.89vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.07-1.96vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.51-4.14vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-1.34vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.8522.9%1st Place
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3.85University of Hawaii1.7018.1%1st Place
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6.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.2%1st Place
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4.51University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.2%1st Place
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5.48University of California at Berkeley0.989.8%1st Place
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6.5University of California at San Diego0.685.8%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Los Angeles0.324.4%1st Place
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7.11University of Southern California0.385.2%1st Place
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9.66California State University Monterey Bay-0.572.4%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Davis0.073.5%1st Place
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6.86University of Washington0.515.3%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.6%1st Place
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10.95San Diego State University-1.271.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 22.9% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 18.1% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.2% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Will Cornell | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barton | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Sasha Wilson | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 22.0% | 31.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 21.9% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.