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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+6.39vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.81+2.08vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55-0.28vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.74+0.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.06+0.98vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.63+1.67vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.11-1.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.15-1.62vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-3.57vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+0.33vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.39-1.53vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.03-1.33vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.19-2.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39University of California at Santa Cruz-0.594.2%1st Place
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4.08University of Washington0.8115.0%1st Place
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2.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5531.1%1st Place
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4.22University of Washington0.7414.3%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Santa Barbara0.067.1%1st Place
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7.67University of California at Berkeley-0.633.5%1st Place
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5.73University of California at Los Angeles0.117.8%1st Place
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6.38University of California at San Diego-0.155.7%1st Place
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5.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.267.5%1st Place
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10.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.800.9%1st Place
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9.47University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.8%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Davis-2.030.8%1st Place
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10.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.190.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Martin | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 31.1% | 24.9% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 14.3% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Max Lawall | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 2.0% |
| Linnea Jackson | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Tobie Bloom | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 18.5% | 21.8% | 21.3% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 18.8% | 16.3% | 10.8% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 28.5% |
| Mason James | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 22.6% | 35.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.