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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.39vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.68+3.47vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-0.44vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.32+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.70-2.11vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.33vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-0.72+1.93vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+1.34vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.07-1.99vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.51-4.18vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.38-4.72vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48University of California at Berkeley0.988.8%1st Place
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4.39University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.8%1st Place
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6.47University of California at San Diego0.687.5%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Santa Barbara1.8520.3%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Los Angeles0.324.8%1st Place
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3.89University of Hawaii1.7018.3%1st Place
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6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.516.0%1st Place
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9.93California State University Monterey Bay-0.721.7%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.5%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Davis0.074.5%1st Place
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6.82University of Washington0.515.6%1st Place
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7.28University of Southern California0.385.0%1st Place
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11.07San Diego State University-1.271.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cornell | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.8% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Lukas Kraak | 20.3% | 20.0% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Owen Lahr | 18.3% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Max Graves | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 16.9% | 21.9% | 19.1% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 20.9% | 28.4% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 21.8% | 40.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.