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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.81+3.19vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+7.37vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+4.61vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55-1.24vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.74-0.69vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.11-0.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-1.08vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.63-0.42vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-3.67vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+0.26vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.15-4.57vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.19-1.05vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.03-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19University of Washington0.8115.0%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.7%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.2%1st Place
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2.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5530.0%1st Place
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4.31University of Washington0.7413.8%1st Place
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5.63University of California at Los Angeles0.117.2%1st Place
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5.92University of California at Santa Barbara0.066.5%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Berkeley-0.633.9%1st Place
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5.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.269.3%1st Place
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10.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.5%1st Place
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6.43University of California at San Diego-0.156.1%1st Place
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10.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.190.7%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Davis-2.031.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aragorn Crozier | 15.0% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 9.8% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% |
| Sean Ross | 30.0% | 22.6% | 18.4% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 13.8% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Linnea Jackson | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Max Lawall | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Florence Duff | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 23.5% | 20.8% |
| Tobie Bloom | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Mason James | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 19.9% | 36.3% |
| Shanay Patel | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 23.6% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.