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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.70+2.88vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.51vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+2.45vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.51+0.66vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.32+0.09vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-0.72+1.90vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+0.57vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-2.91vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.38-4.86vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88University of Hawaii1.7019.4%1st Place
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3.51University of California at Santa Barbara1.8521.4%1st Place
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4.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.2%1st Place
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6.45University of California at San Diego0.686.8%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Berkeley0.989.4%1st Place
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6.66University of Washington0.515.8%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Los Angeles0.325.2%1st Place
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9.9California State University Monterey Bay-0.721.5%1st Place
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6.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.8%1st Place
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10.57University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.1%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Davis0.073.7%1st Place
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7.14University of Southern California0.384.7%1st Place
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10.97San Diego State University-1.271.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Lahr | 19.4% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 21.4% | 18.9% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.2% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Will Cornell | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Ian Marshall | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Max Graves | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 16.4% | 21.1% | 19.5% |
| Max Case | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 22.6% | 30.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 4.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 23.7% | 37.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.