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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.62vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.70+1.84vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.32+4.20vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+2.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+4.55vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.07-0.06vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-1.72vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.27+0.97vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-1.41vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.51-5.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-9.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62University of California at Berkeley0.988.8%1st Place
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3.84University of Hawaii1.7017.4%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Los Angeles0.325.9%1st Place
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6.56University of California at San Diego0.685.9%1st Place
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4.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.4%1st Place
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10.55University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.2%1st Place
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6.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.7%1st Place
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7.94University of California at Davis0.074.0%1st Place
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7.28University of Southern California0.385.0%1st Place
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10.97San Diego State University-1.271.3%1st Place
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9.59California State University Monterey Bay-0.571.7%1st Place
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6.83University of Washington0.516.2%1st Place
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3.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.8521.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cornell | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Owen Lahr | 17.4% | 18.3% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Noah Barton | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.4% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 22.0% | 30.6% |
| Max Case | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 20.8% | 41.1% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Lukas Kraak | 21.6% | 18.1% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.