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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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11.55+1.83vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.74+2.40vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.81+1.22vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.06+2.11vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+2.72vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.11-0.15vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.15-0.44vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.63-0.07vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+1.42vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.39-0.24vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-2.27vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-6.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.03-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.831.5528.3%1st Place
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4.4University of Washington0.7412.7%1st Place
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4.22University of Washington0.8115.2%1st Place
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6.11University of California at Santa Barbara0.067.4%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Santa Cruz-0.593.8%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Los Angeles0.116.7%1st Place
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6.56University of California at San Diego-0.156.1%1st Place
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7.93University of California at Berkeley-0.633.5%1st Place
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10.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.2%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.7%1st Place
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8.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.952.7%1st Place
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5.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.269.7%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Davis-2.031.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Ross | 28.3% | 23.5% | 18.5% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 12.7% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 15.2% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% |
| Linnea Jackson | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Tobie Bloom | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Max Lawall | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 21.9% | 27.6% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 8.2% |
| Florence Duff | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Shanay Patel | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 21.8% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.