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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.35vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.48vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.70+0.88vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.32+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+0.57vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.07+1.11vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.51-1.25vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+0.64vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+0.58vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-4.18vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.38-4.82vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.0%1st Place
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3.48University of California at Santa Barbara1.8521.6%1st Place
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3.88University of Hawaii1.7017.5%1st Place
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5.52University of California at Berkeley0.989.2%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Los Angeles0.326.2%1st Place
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6.57University of California at San Diego0.685.4%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Davis0.074.3%1st Place
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6.75University of Washington0.515.5%1st Place
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9.64California State University Monterey Bay-0.571.8%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Cruz-0.991.2%1st Place
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6.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.4%1st Place
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7.18University of Southern California0.385.8%1st Place
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11.06San Diego State University-1.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 21.6% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 17.5% | 19.3% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Ian Marshall | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 1.3% |
| Noah Barton | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 17.8% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 23.4% | 31.1% |
| Max Case | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 21.1% | 41.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.