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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.81+3.26vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+0.80vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.74+1.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.15+2.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+1.59vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.56+1.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.11-1.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-1.92vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+1.41vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.03+0.78vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-5.51vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.19-1.04vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.39-3.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.26University of Washington0.8113.7%1st Place
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2.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5530.6%1st Place
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4.41University of Washington0.7413.3%1st Place
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6.5University of California at San Diego-0.156.2%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Santa Cruz-0.175.9%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Berkeley-0.564.0%1st Place
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5.81University of California at Los Angeles0.117.3%1st Place
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6.08University of California at Santa Barbara0.065.9%1st Place
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10.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.2%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Davis-2.030.8%1st Place
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5.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.268.2%1st Place
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10.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.190.9%1st Place
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9.39University of California at Los Angeles-1.392.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aragorn Crozier | 13.7% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 30.6% | 21.5% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 13.3% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tobie Bloom | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| karl zoghbi | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| James Guiraud | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Linnea Jackson | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 23.2% | 22.2% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 24.4% | 29.1% |
| Florence Duff | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Mason James | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 21.2% | 35.8% |
| Deven Douglas | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.