← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.67vs Predicted
-
2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+4.89vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Los Angeles0.32+4.28vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Davis0.07+4.11vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.66vs Predicted
-
6California State University Monterey Bay-0.72+4.15vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-2.51vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego0.68-1.36vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.45+0.61vs Predicted
-
10University of Washington0.51-3.14vs Predicted
-
11University of Southern California0.38-3.65vs Predicted
-
12University of Hawaii2.03-8.82vs Predicted
-
13San Diego State University-1.27-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.8519.4%1st Place
-
6.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.6%1st Place
-
7.28University of California at Los Angeles0.324.9%1st Place
-
8.11University of California at Davis0.073.5%1st Place
-
5.66University of California at Berkeley0.988.3%1st Place
-
10.15California State University Monterey Bay-0.721.6%1st Place
-
4.49University of California at Santa Barbara1.4413.5%1st Place
-
6.64University of California at San Diego0.686.0%1st Place
-
9.61University of California at Santa Cruz-0.451.4%1st Place
-
6.86University of Washington0.515.6%1st Place
-
7.35University of Southern California0.384.5%1st Place
-
3.18University of Hawaii2.0324.9%1st Place
-
11.11San Diego State University-1.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 19.4% | 18.7% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 5.3% |
| Will Cornell | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Max Graves | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 22.6% | 24.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 13.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Patton | 24.9% | 21.2% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 18.1% | 45.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.