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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.48vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.03+0.19vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.51+2.92vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.71vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.07+1.29vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.68-1.45vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-1.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.32-2.77vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.45-1.40vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-0.72-1.86vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.8518.1%1st Place
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4.48University of California at Santa Barbara1.4413.6%1st Place
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3.19University of Hawaii2.0325.4%1st Place
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6.92University of Washington0.515.6%1st Place
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5.71University of California at Berkeley0.988.0%1st Place
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6.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.5%1st Place
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8.29University of California at Davis0.072.9%1st Place
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6.55University of California at San Diego0.686.7%1st Place
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7.34University of Southern California0.385.1%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Los Angeles0.324.4%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.451.8%1st Place
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10.14California State University Monterey Bay-0.721.8%1st Place
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11.0San Diego State University-1.271.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 18.1% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 13.6% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Patton | 25.4% | 21.3% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Will Cornell | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Max Case | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 5.1% |
| Noah Barton | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 20.1% | 16.9% |
| Max Graves | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 22.0% | 24.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 44.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.