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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.44vs Predicted
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21.55+1.55vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+2.12vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.56+5.32vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.81+0.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.06+1.44vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+1.12vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.74-2.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+2.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.11-2.81vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-4.17vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-1.46vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80-0.72vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.46-2.58vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.03-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44California Poly Maritime Academy1.6221.2%1st Place
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3.551.5521.6%1st Place
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5.12California Poly Maritime Academy0.8610.6%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Berkeley-0.562.2%1st Place
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5.26University of Washington0.8111.3%1st Place
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7.44University of California at Santa Barbara0.064.8%1st Place
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8.12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.174.2%1st Place
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5.43University of Washington0.749.4%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.1%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Los Angeles0.114.7%1st Place
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6.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.265.3%1st Place
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10.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.4%1st Place
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12.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.800.7%1st Place
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11.42University of California at San Diego-1.461.1%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Davis-2.030.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 21.2% | 19.5% | 17.5% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 21.6% | 18.7% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 10.6% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Guiraud | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| karl zoghbi | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Erin Pamplin | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 12.8% |
| Linnea Jackson | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Florence Duff | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 6.9% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 20.6% | 27.6% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 14.3% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 19.4% | 35.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.