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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.52vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.03+1.24vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.95vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-0.42vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+4.80vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.68-0.29vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.51-0.98vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.32-1.88vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.38-2.76vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-2.84vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.45-2.33vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.4413.7%1st Place
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3.24University of Hawaii2.0325.4%1st Place
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6.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.6%1st Place
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3.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.8519.8%1st Place
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9.8California State University Monterey Bay-0.571.1%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Berkeley0.988.1%1st Place
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6.71University of California at San Diego0.685.2%1st Place
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7.02University of Washington0.515.2%1st Place
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7.12University of California at Los Angeles0.324.9%1st Place
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7.24University of Southern California0.385.5%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Davis0.073.0%1st Place
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9.67University of California at Santa Cruz-0.451.6%1st Place
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11.23San Diego State University-1.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.7% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 25.4% | 19.8% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Lukas Kraak | 19.8% | 20.2% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| Will Cornell | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Noah Barton | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 5.8% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 18.1% | 48.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.