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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+2.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.23vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.03-0.17vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.46vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+4.80vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.45+3.65vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.51-0.36vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.68-1.51vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.33vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-2.13vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27+0.13vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.38-4.83vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.32-5.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59California Poly Maritime Academy2.0720.5%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.0%1st Place
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4.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.8515.8%1st Place
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3.83University of Hawaii2.0318.6%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Berkeley0.986.8%1st Place
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10.8California State University Monterey Bay-0.571.1%1st Place
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10.65University of California at Santa Cruz-0.451.6%1st Place
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7.64University of Washington0.515.2%1st Place
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7.49University of California at San Diego0.684.7%1st Place
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7.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.1%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Davis0.072.4%1st Place
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12.13San Diego State University-1.270.7%1st Place
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8.17University of Southern California0.383.8%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Los Angeles0.323.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Collins | 20.5% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lukas Kraak | 15.8% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 18.6% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 20.4% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Noah Barton | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Max Case | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 19.0% | 46.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Ian Marshall | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.