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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+5.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.63vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+1.36vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.71+6.16vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+0.63vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+2.94vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo2.44+4.38vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.11+0.63vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.55+1.95vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.16vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.35+0.86vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-2.53vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.28-1.11vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.46-3.02vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.16-6.50vs Predicted
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16Penn State University1.37-0.93vs Predicted
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173.24-8.67vs Predicted
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18Hampton University2.28-6.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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4.36Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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10.16Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.94SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.38University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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8.63Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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10.95Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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11.86Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.47University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.89George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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10.98Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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8.5University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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15.07Penn State University1.370.0%1st Place
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8.333.240.1%1st Place
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11.88Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nevin Snow | 16.7% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 12.7% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 5.7% |
| Connor Godfrey | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Conor Cashel | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 8.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Colin Kennedy | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Ben Buhl | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Can Akdurak | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 41.9% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.