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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.65vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.51+4.35vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.98vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.51+2.09vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+3.58vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.52+0.17vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-2.42vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+0.73vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.79-0.25vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.97-1.66vs Predicted
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11Hampton University2.11+0.39vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia2.39-1.37vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30+0.89vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.87-2.07vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.21-4.06vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.75-0.45vs Predicted
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17Penn State University1.35-2.99vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.35University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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6.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.58Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.17Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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8.73Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.75George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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11.39Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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13.89Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.93SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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10.94Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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15.55University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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14.01Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 11.0% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Morrill | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Will Holz | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 15.7% | 17.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Andrea Luna | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| Arthur Libby | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 5.4% |
| Austin Powers | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 17.1% | 41.9% |
| John Shanahan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| Charles Skord | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.