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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.64vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.97+6.34vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.95vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+0.56vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.51+1.14vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.51+0.16vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.79+1.79vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.84+0.53vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.52-2.94vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.11+1.54vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-1.99vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.87+0.54vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia2.39-2.86vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.21-3.33vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75+0.46vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.30-1.87vs Predicted
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17Penn State University1.35-3.08vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University2.970.0%1st Place
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6.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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4.56St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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6.14University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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6.16Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.79George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.53Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.54Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.01Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.54SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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10.14University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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10.67Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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15.46University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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14.13Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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13.92Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 16.2% | 16.7% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Bailey | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Will Holz | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 6.3% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Austin Powers | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 18.1% | 38.9% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 20.6% |
| John Shanahan | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 18.3% |
| Charles Skord | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.