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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.51+5.54vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.84+7.02vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.51+3.42vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.63+5.48vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.74-0.38vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.21+4.18vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia2.39+2.42vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.79-0.13vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-5.19vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.52-4.64vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.97-3.44vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75+2.43vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.11-2.75vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.77-6.03vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.30-1.73vs Predicted
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17Penn State University1.35-2.82vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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9.02Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.42University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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9.48SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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6.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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5.62U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.18Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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10.42University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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4.81St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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6.36Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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15.43University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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11.25Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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8.97Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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14.27Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.18Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Post | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.8% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mary Hall | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Fletcher Sims | 16.4% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 18.3% | 40.7% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| John Shanahan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 18.7% | 20.5% |
| Charles Skord | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.