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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.85vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.84+7.07vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+6.34vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.79+4.90vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.61vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.06vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.51-0.66vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia2.39+2.46vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.61vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.20-2.34vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.21+0.39vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+1.12vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30+1.05vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.11-2.68vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.52-8.74vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.51-9.58vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75-1.38vs Predicted
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18Penn State University1.35-4.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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9.07Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.34Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.9George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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10.46University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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9.61SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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7.66Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.39Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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13.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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14.05Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.32Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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6.26Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.42Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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15.62University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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13.91Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 15.2% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Mary Hall | 12.4% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Austin Powers | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Charles Skord | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 16.6% | 9.6% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 20.4% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Will Holz | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alex Post | 9.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 18.7% | 42.5% |
| John Shanahan | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.