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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.51+5.54vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+2.72vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+6.26vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.91vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.51vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.51+0.29vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.25+0.25vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.79+0.88vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.20-1.69vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.39+0.70vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.21+0.28vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.11-0.19vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-4.33vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.63-4.66vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75+0.58vs Predicted
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16Penn State University1.35-1.89vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.30-2.73vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-5.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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4.72St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.26Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.25Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.88George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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7.31Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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10.7University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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11.28Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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11.81Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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8.67Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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9.34SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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15.58University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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14.11Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.27Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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12.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximiliano Agnese | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Mary Hall | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
| Austin Powers | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Ryan Bailey | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 41.4% |
| John Shanahan | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 19.6% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 19.3% | 21.2% |
| Charles Skord | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.