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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+6.20vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.84+6.86vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.51+3.32vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+0.47vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University2.21+5.97vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.84vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.79+1.84vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.87+4.08vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia2.39+1.29vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.97-1.63vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.74-5.47vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.51-5.55vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.11-1.74vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.77-5.35vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-3.70vs Predicted
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16Penn State University1.35-2.01vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75-1.37vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.30-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.86Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.32Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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4.47St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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10.97Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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6.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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8.84George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.08SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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10.29University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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8.37Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.45University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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11.26Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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8.65Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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13.99Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.63University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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13.93Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Alex Post | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 17.2% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Daniel DelBello | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Arthur Libby | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 5.4% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Mary Hall | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Watterson | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.4% |
| John Shanahan | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 18.0% | 43.8% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.