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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.73vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.51+4.34vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+4.39vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20+3.20vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.79+3.78vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84+2.71vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77+1.91vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.51-1.85vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia2.39+1.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.74-4.33vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.21+0.23vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-4.82vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.87-0.86vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.88vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.30-0.90vs Predicted
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16Hampton University2.11-4.46vs Predicted
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17Penn State University1.35-2.93vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo0.75-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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7.39Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.2Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.78George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.71Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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8.91Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.15Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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10.33University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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5.67U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.23Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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12.14SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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14.1Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.54Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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14.07Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.4University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Daniel DelBello | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Alex Post | 9.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Mary Hall | 12.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.9% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 6.7% |
| Samuel Watterson | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| John Shanahan | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| Rory Mess | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.