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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.69vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia2.39+8.60vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.51+3.31vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.85vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+6.31vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.87+6.38vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.11+4.44vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.20-0.73vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25-1.97vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-5.24vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.79-1.97vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.30+2.39vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.51-6.88vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-5.61vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.21-3.96vs Predicted
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16Penn State University1.35-1.98vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.77-7.99vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo0.75-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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10.6University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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12.38SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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11.44Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.27Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.03Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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4.76St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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9.03George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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14.39Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.39Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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11.04Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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14.02Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.01Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.37University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Watterson | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 15.3% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| Alex Post | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Austin Powers | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| John Shanahan | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.