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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.62vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+5.10vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.11+8.65vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+0.57vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.51+1.21vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University2.21+5.00vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.84+1.63vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia2.39+2.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+2.44vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.20-2.51vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-1.98vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.87+0.55vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.79-4.25vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo0.75+1.34vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.25-7.88vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.30-1.85vs Predicted
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17Penn State University1.35-2.92vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.51-11.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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11.65Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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4.57St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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6.21University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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11.0Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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8.63Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.27University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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11.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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7.49Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.02Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.55SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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8.75George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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15.34University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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14.15Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.08Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.02Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
| Fletcher Sims | 17.1% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Austin Powers | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Samuel Watterson | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Daniel DelBello | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Rory Mess | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 38.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 18.7% | 20.6% |
| John Shanahan | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| Alex Post | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.