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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.52+7.91vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.55+6.88vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.01+3.99vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+2.50vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.73+2.90vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.69+2.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.24vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.84+3.40vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.70-1.01vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05+0.90vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.73-2.96vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.49-2.77vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University2.45-0.27vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-5.90vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.84-7.60vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College1.85-1.29vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.51-8.09vs Predicted
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18University of Connecticut1.13-1.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.91Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.88Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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6.99Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.5Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.06Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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11.4Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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7.99Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.9Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.04Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.23Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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12.73Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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8.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.4University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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14.71Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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8.91University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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16.12University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Croteau | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Erika Reineke | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Judge Ryan | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Conor Lodge | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 4.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Scott Houck | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| John Silvestri | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 16.6% | 8.4% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Rachel Bryer | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 24.7% | 24.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Jennifer Lee | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 56.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.