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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.68+1.86vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.74vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.19-0.82vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.18+4.23vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay1.63+2.03vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.64-1.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+0.98vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-0.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley2.12-3.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.71-3.27vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University1.55-3.97vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.63-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.86University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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5.74University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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2.18Stanford University4.190.4%1st Place
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8.23University of California at San Diego1.180.0%1st Place
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7.03California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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4.76University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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7.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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5.96University of California at Berkeley2.120.1%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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7.03Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
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7.03California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pokras | 22.4% | 26.2% | 21.1% | 15.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Stokes | 6.1% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 39.4% | 28.5% | 15.7% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wooldridge | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 17.9% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 9.2% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 22.7% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.