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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+4.21vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+4.22vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+1.79vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.78+4.46vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.15+3.41vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.60+3.09vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.29-0.71vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.39+1.85vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+0.09vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.71+1.86vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.90+0.75vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.05-0.61vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.17vs Predicted
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14Clemson University0.23-0.15vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.53-4.97vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.99-7.22vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.59-8.33vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.21Yale University2.7313.5%1st Place
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6.22Bowdoin College2.388.6%1st Place
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4.79University of Rhode Island2.7816.0%1st Place
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8.46Brown University1.786.0%1st Place
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8.41Tufts University2.155.9%1st Place
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9.09Dartmouth College1.604.2%1st Place
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6.29Connecticut College2.299.9%1st Place
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9.85Boston University1.393.8%1st Place
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9.09Washington College1.665.1%1st Place
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11.86University of Vermont0.712.8%1st Place
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11.75University of South Florida0.902.5%1st Place
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11.39Northeastern University1.052.6%1st Place
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10.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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13.85Clemson University0.231.7%1st Place
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10.03Roger Williams University1.533.6%1st Place
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8.78North Carolina State University1.994.7%1st Place
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8.67University of Pennsylvania1.595.5%1st Place
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16.42Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 13.5% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.0% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 5.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 4.9% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 3.7% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.5% |
| Garrett Cook | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 22.8% | 16.8% |
| Riley Read | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Scott Harris | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 61.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.