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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+3.66vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.29+3.97vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+1.80vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.71+6.91vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.78+3.07vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.60+2.59vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.15+1.04vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.59+0.30vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.53+0.31vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.31vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.90+0.24vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-3.38vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.99-4.67vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.05-3.18vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.38-9.19vs Predicted
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16Clemson University-0.17-2.08vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-1.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.66University of Rhode Island2.7815.5%1st Place
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5.97Connecticut College2.2910.5%1st Place
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4.8Yale University2.7314.8%1st Place
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10.91University of Vermont0.712.9%1st Place
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8.07Brown University1.785.1%1st Place
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8.59Dartmouth College1.604.7%1st Place
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8.04Tufts University2.155.5%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania1.595.3%1st Place
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9.31Roger Williams University1.534.5%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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11.24University of South Florida0.902.5%1st Place
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8.62Washington College1.665.3%1st Place
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8.33North Carolina State University1.995.2%1st Place
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10.82Northeastern University1.052.5%1st Place
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5.81Bowdoin College2.3811.0%1st Place
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13.92Clemson University-0.170.9%1st Place
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15.32Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.5% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 14.8% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 3.9% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Riley Read | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 1.6% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 5.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Scott Harris | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Bialek | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 27.7% | 24.7% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 57.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.