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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.78+6.87vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.29+4.25vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+1.62vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.66+4.63vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.53+4.38vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.05+4.78vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.60+1.60vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.99+0.16vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.59-0.72vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.90+1.28vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.15-3.10vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-1.95vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.73-8.18vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.71-2.93vs Predicted
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15Clemson University-0.17-1.08vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-0.53vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.38-11.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87Brown University1.786.8%1st Place
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6.25Connecticut College2.298.6%1st Place
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4.62University of Rhode Island2.7815.5%1st Place
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8.63Washington College1.664.3%1st Place
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9.38Roger Williams University1.534.2%1st Place
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10.78Northeastern University1.052.6%1st Place
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8.6Dartmouth College1.605.0%1st Place
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8.16North Carolina State University1.996.2%1st Place
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8.28University of Pennsylvania1.595.3%1st Place
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11.28University of South Florida0.902.0%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University2.155.6%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.5%1st Place
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4.82Yale University2.7315.7%1st Place
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11.07University of Vermont0.712.5%1st Place
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13.92Clemson University-0.171.1%1st Place
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15.47Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.4%1st Place
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5.93Bowdoin College2.389.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Riley Read | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Scott Harris | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 4.8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Jack Egan | 15.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 4.0% |
| Samantha Bialek | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 27.1% | 24.3% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 58.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.