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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+3.82vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.53+7.43vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+2.80vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.29+2.16vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78-0.50vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.78+1.86vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.15+1.21vs Predicted
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8Clemson University-0.17+5.97vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida0.90+2.08vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.60-1.16vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.59-2.72vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.05-1.31vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.66-4.45vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-3.98vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.71-3.96vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.99-7.67vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-1.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82Yale University2.7315.0%1st Place
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9.43Roger Williams University1.534.2%1st Place
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5.8Bowdoin College2.3810.0%1st Place
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6.16Connecticut College2.299.1%1st Place
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4.5University of Rhode Island2.7817.5%1st Place
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7.86Brown University1.786.0%1st Place
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8.21Tufts University2.155.5%1st Place
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13.97Clemson University-0.171.0%1st Place
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11.08University of South Florida0.902.5%1st Place
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8.84Dartmouth College1.604.1%1st Place
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8.28University of Pennsylvania1.595.7%1st Place
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10.69Northeastern University1.053.1%1st Place
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8.55Washington College1.664.8%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.2%1st Place
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11.04University of Vermont0.712.5%1st Place
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8.33North Carolina State University1.995.1%1st Place
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15.41Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 15.0% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Read | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 17.5% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Samantha Bialek | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 4.6% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Matt Hersey | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Lars Osell | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
| Scott Harris | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 58.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.