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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.36vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+1.69vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.04+0.67vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.60+2.82vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University1.42+2.01vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-1.25vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-0.07vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.15vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.61-0.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.48-3.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.35-3.99vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.61-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.36Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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3.69University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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3.67University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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6.82University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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7.01Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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4.75University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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6.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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8.15University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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8.8California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Berkeley1.480.0%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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8.8California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 35.8% | 25.8% | 18.2% | 11.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 17.1% | 17.5% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 14.8% | 18.1% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 9.4% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kiersten McDonald | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 20.2% | 35.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 20.2% | 35.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.