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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.60+7.61vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.66+6.68vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.53+6.45vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+1.88vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.15+2.99vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.05+4.87vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78-2.45vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.99+0.52vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.29-2.81vs Predicted
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10Clemson University0.23+3.43vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.73-6.20vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.59-3.74vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida0.90-1.86vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-3.95vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83+0.43vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.71-4.82vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.78-9.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.61Dartmouth College1.604.0%1st Place
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8.68Washington College1.664.8%1st Place
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9.45Roger Williams University1.534.6%1st Place
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5.88Bowdoin College2.3810.5%1st Place
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7.99Tufts University2.155.1%1st Place
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10.87Northeastern University1.053.3%1st Place
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4.55University of Rhode Island2.7816.4%1st Place
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8.52North Carolina State University1.994.6%1st Place
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6.19Connecticut College2.299.2%1st Place
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13.43Clemson University0.231.1%1st Place
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4.8Yale University2.7315.6%1st Place
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8.26University of Pennsylvania1.595.9%1st Place
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11.14University of South Florida0.902.4%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.3%1st Place
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15.43Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.6%1st Place
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11.18University of Vermont0.712.8%1st Place
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7.96Brown University1.785.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Eastman | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Riley Read | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Matt Hersey | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.4% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Harris | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Cook | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 24.8% | 16.7% |
| Jack Egan | 15.6% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 5.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 12.8% | 62.3% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 4.9% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.