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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.35vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University1.42+5.04vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+0.84vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47+0.84vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay0.61+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii3.04-2.41vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.61+1.72vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.60-1.51vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.35-1.89vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.67vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-3.98vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.48-5.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.35Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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7.04Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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3.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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4.84University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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8.72California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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3.59University of Hawaii3.040.2%1st Place
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8.72California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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6.49University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Berkeley1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 35.6% | 26.3% | 19.3% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 14.1% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 35.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 18.5% | 18.7% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 35.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 20.3% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
| Kiersten McDonald | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.