Race 1A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dillon Paiva 22.6% 20.1% 18.6% 13.5% 12.3% 7.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scott Hoffmann 11.5% 10.4% 14.2% 13.9% 13.6% 12.5% 8.8% 8.8% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 8.7% 7.2% 9.3% 11.0% 11.7% 13.4% 13.9% 11.5% 8.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Liberty 9.6% 12.1% 10.3% 12.8% 13.9% 13.5% 10.7% 9.6% 5.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gary Herring 13.8% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9% 12.0% 12.4% 9.6% 5.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Dattola-Harris 4.2% 4.3% 5.9% 8.2% 7.8% 10.6% 13.7% 15.5% 14.5% 14.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline Gill 3.5% 4.1% 2.5% 4.6% 5.4% 7.5% 11.4% 13.3% 18.7% 25.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Campbell 19.3% 20.3% 16.8% 12.8% 10.6% 8.0% 6.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gary Herring 13.8% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9% 12.0% 12.4% 9.6% 5.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Shoemaker 3.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% 5.5% 5.9% 10.7% 12.2% 20.5% 26.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jessica Thal 3.5% 4.7% 4.8% 5.6% 6.9% 8.8% 10.7% 16.4% 17.5% 19.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Wakeen 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.5% 3.1% 5.1% 88.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline Gill 3.5% 4.1% 2.5% 4.6% 5.4% 7.5% 11.4% 13.3% 18.7% 25.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.