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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.29+5.20vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+2.73vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.78+5.04vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.59+4.41vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+0.79vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78-1.33vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.71+3.94vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.60+0.63vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.53+0.39vs Predicted
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10Clemson University0.23+3.20vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.66-2.39vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.15-3.90vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida0.90-1.74vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.99-5.51vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.05-4.16vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.82vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2Connecticut College2.299.2%1st Place
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4.73Yale University2.7316.7%1st Place
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8.04Brown University1.786.0%1st Place
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8.41University of Pennsylvania1.594.0%1st Place
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5.79Bowdoin College2.3810.7%1st Place
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4.67University of Rhode Island2.7815.8%1st Place
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10.94University of Vermont0.712.6%1st Place
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8.63Dartmouth College1.604.5%1st Place
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9.39Roger Williams University1.534.0%1st Place
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13.2Clemson University0.231.1%1st Place
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8.61Washington College1.665.5%1st Place
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8.1Tufts University2.155.5%1st Place
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11.26University of South Florida0.902.8%1st Place
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8.49North Carolina State University1.995.1%1st Place
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10.84Northeastern University1.052.5%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.5%1st Place
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15.53Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Whittemore | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 16.7% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.8% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 4.0% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Riley Read | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Garrett Cook | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 23.9% | 15.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 5.5% |
| Scott Harris | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.8% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 13.7% | 62.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.