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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.55vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+0.15vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay0.61+5.53vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University1.42+2.92vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.32-0.21vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-1.56vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.48-0.60vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-1.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.35-2.06vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.60-3.75vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.61-2.47vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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2.15Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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8.53California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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6.92Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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4.79University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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4.44University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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6.4University of California at Berkeley1.480.0%1st Place
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6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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6.25University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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8.53California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 15.2% | 19.6% | 18.4% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 42.5% | 25.5% | 16.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 23.5% | 25.3% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 9.0% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 11.1% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Kiersten McDonald | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 23.5% | 25.3% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 20.2% | 47.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.