← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University1.72+8.13vs Predicted
-
2Connecticut College1.95+5.21vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University1.94+4.46vs Predicted
-
4Northeastern University1.24+6.20vs Predicted
-
5Yale University2.71-0.27vs Predicted
-
6North Carolina State University1.78+1.53vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.37vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+5.02vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College1.95-1.40vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University2.12-3.09vs Predicted
-
11University of Vermont1.05-0.19vs Predicted
-
12Clemson University1.22-1.90vs Predicted
-
13Boston University0.48+0.02vs Predicted
-
14Bowdoin College2.06-6.92vs Predicted
-
15University of Rhode Island1.26-5.18vs Predicted
-
16University of South Florida1.19-5.60vs Predicted
-
17Washington College0.35-3.62vs Predicted
-
18Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.39-1.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.13Brown University1.724.4%1st Place
-
7.21Connecticut College1.957.9%1st Place
-
7.46Roger Williams University1.948.3%1st Place
-
10.2Northeastern University1.243.2%1st Place
-
4.73Yale University2.7115.3%1st Place
-
7.53North Carolina State University1.786.3%1st Place
-
5.63University of Pennsylvania2.4210.9%1st Place
-
13.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.5%1st Place
-
7.6Dartmouth College1.956.9%1st Place
-
6.91Tufts University2.128.5%1st Place
-
10.81University of Vermont1.052.8%1st Place
-
10.1Clemson University1.223.2%1st Place
-
13.02Boston University0.481.6%1st Place
-
7.08Bowdoin College2.069.2%1st Place
-
9.82University of Rhode Island1.264.8%1st Place
-
10.4University of South Florida1.193.5%1st Place
-
13.38Washington College0.351.5%1st Place
-
16.98Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.390.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Bell | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Walter Henry | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.9% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| William Turner | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| William Wiegand | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 18.4% | 6.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 21.0% | 7.6% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 74.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.