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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.95+6.28vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+2.65vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+4.62vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+2.90vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.12+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.05+4.72vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.24+3.24vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.72+0.83vs Predicted
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9Clemson University1.22+1.33vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.26-0.13vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.19-0.54vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.35+1.27vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.94-5.59vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.78-6.40vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.48-1.94vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.97vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.39+0.02vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.42-12.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.28Connecticut College1.957.1%1st Place
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4.65Yale University2.7115.2%1st Place
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7.62Dartmouth College1.958.0%1st Place
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6.9Bowdoin College2.067.0%1st Place
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7.08Tufts University2.127.9%1st Place
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10.72University of Vermont1.053.1%1st Place
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10.24Northeastern University1.243.4%1st Place
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8.83Brown University1.724.5%1st Place
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10.33Clemson University1.224.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Rhode Island1.264.0%1st Place
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10.46University of South Florida1.193.0%1st Place
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13.27Washington College0.351.7%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University1.948.3%1st Place
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7.6North Carolina State University1.787.3%1st Place
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13.06Boston University0.481.8%1st Place
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13.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.4%1st Place
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17.02Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.390.4%1st Place
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5.61University of Pennsylvania2.4211.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Henry | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Jed Bell | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| William Turner | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Camden Ward | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 7.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| William Wiegand | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 6.2% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 19.8% | 6.6% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 74.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.