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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.72+7.82vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.95+4.88vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+4.31vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.71+0.69vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+1.95vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.78+1.30vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.24+2.94vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42-2.32vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.94-1.72vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.26-0.27vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.19-0.94vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.12-5.18vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.05-2.61vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.35-1.27vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.55vs Predicted
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16Clemson University1.22-6.10vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.39-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.82Brown University1.724.5%1st Place
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6.88Connecticut College1.958.2%1st Place
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7.31Dartmouth College1.957.2%1st Place
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4.69Yale University2.7116.4%1st Place
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6.95Bowdoin College2.067.4%1st Place
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7.3North Carolina State University1.787.0%1st Place
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9.94Northeastern University1.243.6%1st Place
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5.68University of Pennsylvania2.4211.7%1st Place
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7.28Roger Williams University1.947.3%1st Place
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9.73University of Rhode Island1.264.1%1st Place
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10.06University of South Florida1.193.9%1st Place
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6.82Tufts University2.128.1%1st Place
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10.39University of Vermont1.053.0%1st Place
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12.73Washington College0.352.0%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.4%1st Place
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9.9Clemson University1.224.1%1st Place
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16.08Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Bell | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Walter Henry | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.4% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 1.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 2.1% |
| Camden Ward | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 14.7% | 24.5% | 9.2% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 22.6% | 7.7% |
| William Turner | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 9.3% | 75.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.