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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+5.92vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.94+5.33vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.68vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.95+3.02vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.24+5.01vs Predicted
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6Clemson University1.22+3.93vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.12-0.18vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.26+1.79vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.78-1.58vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.71-5.43vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.72-2.47vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College1.95-4.75vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.35-0.32vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.56vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.19-4.88vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.05-5.50vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.39-1.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Bowdoin College2.068.2%1st Place
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7.33Roger Williams University1.946.9%1st Place
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5.68University of Pennsylvania2.4211.8%1st Place
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7.02Connecticut College1.957.4%1st Place
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10.01Northeastern University1.243.4%1st Place
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9.93Clemson University1.223.6%1st Place
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6.82Tufts University2.128.5%1st Place
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9.79University of Rhode Island1.264.0%1st Place
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7.42North Carolina State University1.786.3%1st Place
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4.57Yale University2.7116.4%1st Place
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8.53Brown University1.726.6%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College1.956.9%1st Place
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12.68Washington College0.351.7%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.5%1st Place
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10.12University of South Florida1.193.6%1st Place
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10.5University of Vermont1.052.9%1st Place
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15.98Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.390.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 1.6% |
| William Turner | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 1.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 0.9% |
| Adam Larson | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.4% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jed Bell | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Camden Ward | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 22.9% | 9.7% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 22.9% | 7.8% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 1.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 1.8% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 9.3% | 74.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.