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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.71+3.49vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.95+4.68vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.72+5.35vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.35+8.08vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.26+4.12vs Predicted
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6Clemson University1.22+3.42vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.78-0.05vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.06-1.42vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.19+0.65vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.46vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.05-1.04vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.94-5.15vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-6.53vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.25vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.39+0.12vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College1.95-9.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Yale University2.7116.8%1st Place
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6.68Connecticut College1.958.8%1st Place
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8.35Brown University1.724.7%1st Place
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12.08Washington College0.351.8%1st Place
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9.12University of Rhode Island1.263.6%1st Place
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9.42Clemson University1.224.2%1st Place
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6.95North Carolina State University1.787.2%1st Place
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6.58Bowdoin College2.068.3%1st Place
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9.65University of South Florida1.192.9%1st Place
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5.54University of Pennsylvania2.4211.7%1st Place
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9.96University of Vermont1.053.0%1st Place
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6.85Roger Williams University1.948.8%1st Place
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6.47Tufts University2.128.1%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.8%1st Place
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15.12Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.390.4%1st Place
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6.99Dartmouth College1.958.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.8% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jed Bell | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Camden Ward | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 26.9% | 8.2% |
| Zachary Champney | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| William Turner | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 1.6% |
| Adam Larson | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 6.8% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 77.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.