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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+1.07vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.50+1.30vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.41+0.35vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-0.56vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.04-2.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1340.0%1st Place
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3.3SUNY Maritime College0.5014.0%1st Place
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3.35Cornell University0.4113.3%1st Place
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3.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.6412.0%1st Place
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2.83University of Pennsylvania1.0420.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 40.0% | 29.3% | 17.6% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 14.0% | 17.1% | 19.7% | 23.4% | 25.9% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 13.3% | 15.8% | 20.0% | 24.6% | 26.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 12.0% | 15.8% | 18.6% | 22.9% | 30.6% |
| Ian Fox | 20.7% | 22.0% | 24.1% | 19.6% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.