Race 4A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Michael Campbell 16.6% 19.0% 14.9% 13.9% 14.8% 9.5% 6.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Liberty 12.1% 11.3% 12.4% 12.0% 12.1% 12.7% 11.7% 8.8% 5.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gary Herring 12.8% 11.7% 12.6% 14.7% 12.3% 13.4% 9.8% 7.4% 4.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dillon Paiva 21.9% 20.1% 17.0% 14.3% 10.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline Gill 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% 5.9% 6.6% 10.9% 12.4% 18.6% 28.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Scott Hoffmann 11.7% 11.7% 12.4% 14.0% 13.0% 11.2% 10.2% 7.3% 6.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jessica Thal 4.4% 4.0% 4.7% 6.1% 5.6% 8.7% 11.9% 17.3% 16.4% 19.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 8.8% 9.7% 11.8% 10.8% 13.0% 11.3% 12.0% 11.4% 7.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Shoemaker 3.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.3% 4.9% 6.8% 9.8% 12.3% 20.0% 27.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Dattola-Harris 5.0% 5.9% 7.1% 7.1% 7.4% 11.6% 11.8% 15.7% 16.0% 11.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Gary Herring 12.8% 11.7% 12.6% 14.7% 12.3% 13.4% 9.8% 7.4% 4.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline Gill 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% 5.9% 6.6% 10.9% 12.4% 18.6% 28.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Wakeen 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 3.2% 5.7% 87.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.