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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.60+7.32vs Predicted
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2Catholic University of America1.31+7.20vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.62+5.12vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.72+7.86vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.30+3.85vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.87+3.19vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+0.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+0.21vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.39-1.05vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.63+2.56vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.67-3.27vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-6.30vs Predicted
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13Villanova University0.66-0.91vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.20-3.88vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.11-0.97vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-3.08vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+1.05vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.87-0.39vs Predicted
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19Stevens Institute of Technology-1.01-1.15vs Predicted
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20Washington College-0.26-4.31vs Predicted
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21Webb Institute1.73-13.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32University of Pennsylvania1.606.8%1st Place
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9.2Catholic University of America1.316.0%1st Place
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8.12Fordham University1.627.1%1st Place
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11.86University of Vermont0.722.5%1st Place
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8.85Tufts University1.306.7%1st Place
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9.19Princeton University1.875.1%1st Place
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7.27SUNY Maritime College0.429.2%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.666.8%1st Place
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7.95Jacksonville University1.396.9%1st Place
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12.56SUNY Maritime College0.632.1%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University1.677.2%1st Place
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5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.8%1st Place
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12.09Villanova University0.662.6%1st Place
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10.12Jacksonville University1.204.1%1st Place
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14.03University of Texas0.111.3%1st Place
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12.92Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.1%1st Place
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18.05SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.5%1st Place
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17.61University of Virginia-0.870.4%1st Place
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17.85Stevens Institute of Technology-1.010.7%1st Place
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15.69Washington College-0.261.3%1st Place
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7.66Webb Institute1.737.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| John Eastman | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 2.2% |
| Cole Bender | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 20.3% | 32.0% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 15.9% | 21.5% | 23.2% |
| Michael Dasaro | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 22.4% | 29.8% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 8.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.